February 2022 \ Business & Investment \ BUSINESS AND GOVERNANCE
“India’s recovery is on a solid path”

By Arul Louis

UNITED NATIONS: “India’s recovery is on a solid path”, the UN said in January, reporting that the country recorded the highest estimated growth rate among the major economies last year and is set to be on the same trajectory during this year and the next.

The UN’s annual World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report estimated the growth rate of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) at 9 per cent last year and forecast it to moderate to 6.7 per cent this year and 6.1 per cent next year but still retain the highest growth rates among the large economies.

In 2020, the year Covid-19 pandemic struck the world, India’s economy had shrunk by 7.1 per cent - a negative growth rate - according to the report. China, which came next among the large economies, was estimated to have grown by 7.8 per cent last year and forecast to grow by 5.2 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next year.

Overall, the global economy’s growth was estimated to be 5.5 per cent last year, bouncing back from a shrinkage of 3.4 percent in 2020. The growth projections are 4 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2023.

The report said: “India’s economic recovery is on a solid path, amid rapid vaccination progress, less stringent social restrictions and still supportive fiscal and monetary stances.” The WESP raised India’s growth estimate for last year by 1.7 percent and the growth projection for this year by 0.8 percent from the expectations in its report a year ago. It ascribed slowing down of growth from 9 percent last year to 6.7 per cent this year to waning base effects. While “robust export growth and public investments underpin economic activity”, the WESP warned that “high oil prices and coal shortages could put the brakes on economic activity in the near term”.