“FIIs to return sooner than later”
NEW DELHI: With structural attractiveness in Indian equities among the emerging markets and the possibility that some Russian equity allocations in foreign portfolios will come to India, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are expected to make a comeback “sooner than later”, said brokerage house Samco Securities.
FIIs have now been net sellers in the Indian equities market for more than 5 months in a row, the brokerage said, referring to National Securities Depository (NSDL) data. “Such a selling spree was previously observed during the 2008 global financial crisis, when FIIs were net sellers for about 7 months.”
The major factors which provoked the foreign investors to dump their Indian investments were the expensive valuations of Indian companies and the anticipation of a ‘taper tantrum 2.0’.
That said, robust participation by domestic institutional investors can, however, put bulls back in charge of the markets, it said. Further, the valuations of Indian markets having moderated, geopolitical tensions subsiding, and with more clarity on the timeline for policy rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the volatility in the markets is expected to abate.
The US Fed in March raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to check rising inflation in the country. “While markets around the world are ecstatic that the Fed’s decision has removed uncertainty, the measures announced could have a significant impact on the RBI ahead of the MPC meeting in early April,” it said.
All eyes are now on whether the RBI joins the chorus in its next bi-monthly monetary policy meeting in April. Considering that no major domestic event is lined up, Indian markets will be guided by their global counterparts in the coming weeks, it said, adding that as crude plays such a pivotal role in determining the fate of Indian macros, crude price movements will also be meticulously monitored.