Crisil revises India’s growth outlook from 6.3% to 5.1%
Crisil Rating in December sharply revised India’s growth outlook for fiscal 2020 to 5.1 per cent from 6.3 per cent, citing a dip in fixed investment, weak private consumption growth, weak growth in tax collections and industrial production among others. A major worry, Crisil said, is the sharp fall in nominal growth to 6.1 per cent in Q2 - the lowest in the new GDP series. “We expect nominal GDP this fiscal to average 8.9 per cent as against the budget estimate of 12 per cent. This will impact tax collection and fiscal ratios.”
Crisil’s sharp downward revision of growth outlook comes just ahead of the RBI’s three day long monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, set to start from Tuesday. It is widely expected to deliver a rate cut in order to support growth. It, however, added that growth may recover mildly to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent in the first half, with support from monetary policy, agriculture, a mild pick-up in government spending, and a weak base effect.